Asset Management Bonus Outlook Improves as Markets Bounce Back

The equity market rebound and moderately positive fixed income performance in the first half of the year means that bonuses will likely be up, Connors said.

Bonuses may also be positively affected by the headcount reductions many firms made this year, including hiring slowdowns related to artificial intelligence adoption, according to the report.

However, Connors cautioned that there is more uncertainty around the forecast than is usual at the midway point of the year as the impact of tariffs on the economy and markets remains unsettled.
“There’s positive, cautious optimism for the second half of the year,” he said.

Johnson Associates projects that bonuses at some types of alts managers will fare better than others, with bonuses up 10% for employees of secondaries managers, while they are down 5% for real estate manager employees.

Real estate and venture capital funds have struggled with fundraising in recent years, and weak returns in these spaces mean these issues will continue, leading to bonuses that are either flat or down by as much as 5%, according to the Johnson Associates report.

Private equity firms have also had a rough bout of fundraising this year, although larger ones should be resilient due to scale and diversification, according to the report.

While uncertainty remains around what bonuses will look like, there are reasons to be optimistic that they will trend positively, Connors said. “No matter what happens [over] the rest of the year, you have six months of in the books, performance-wise,” he said. “A lot can happen from now through the end of the year, depending on tariffs and the market… but I think the market has kind of baked in to some degree that fact, and it hasn’t been pessimistic in the face of those uncertainties.”

FundFire / August 5, 2025