Wall Street’s Year-End Bonus Prospects Are Improving

In contrast to a “pretty gloomy” first quarter that included the chance of a recession, the latest report reflects that “markets are up, the S&P is up 7%, and fixed income is up,” Chris Connors, a principal at Johnson Associates, told Barron’s. “The stock market has been incredibly resilient, and the upswings from April lows have had a positive impact on incentive funding.”

It now sees company incentive pools growing up to 10% across asset management and major investment and commercial banks.

One trend that Johnson Associates noted in its first-quarter report is likely to continue. Targeted layoffs driven by artificial intelligence, technology efficiencies, and margin pressures are expected to continue. “In terms of aggregate head count levels, they are looking at how they can leverage AI to be more productive,” Connors said.

Barron’s / August 5, 2025