Wall Street Investment Bankers’ Bonuses to Climb as Deals Surge

Bonuses are projected to rise 10% to 15% or more for investment and commercial bankers as their results outpace other sectors of finance, according to Johnson Associates Inc. The forecast comes after the biggest banks reported record second-quarter earnings, fueled by strong equity trading, advisory and underwriting. 

“The banks have continued to do well, but I think we expected trading and M&A to cool off and it really hasn’t,” Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, said in an interview. “It’s remained strong and consistently good.” 

Artificial intelligence is also reshaping the sector’s workforce. Banks are using AI-driven efficiencies to trim headcount, according to the report, and Johnson expects continued investment in the technology to further reduce employment numbers.  

“The people that survive are going to make more,” Johnson said. Those “that remain will be treasured more, mentored better, though it will be harder to get a job.”  “The path is pretty clear at this point,” he said. “It will be a very good pay market, but not a lot of net new hiring.” 

Bloomberg / August 5, 2026