Banker Bonuses Set to Drop as Tariffs Cause Economic Uncertainty

“We started 2025 with momentum and optimism, which has quickly changed,” Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, said in an interview. “Now the expectation is pay will be down, moderately, off of a high level.”

“Some of the traders at big banks are having great results, benefiting from the volatility,” Johnson said. For others, the level of uncertainty is “not good, given most of financial services needs stability.”

Bankers had high hopes that Trump’s plans for tax cuts and doing away with large swaths of regulation would unleash a wave of dealmaking and capital-markets activity. Now, most of the financial industry will be disappointed with their bonuses if the economic uncertainty and market volatility remain, Johnson said.

“This was finally going to be their year,” he said. “Then the rug gets pulled out from underneath them.”

Bloomberg / May 8, 2025