“It will be one of the most complicated years in the industry since the Great Recession,” Alan Johnson, managing director of Johnson Associates, told The Post. “Big banks are winning while regional banks are suffering big time.”

“It will be the year of the ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots,’” he added

Johnson predicts the most dramatic divergence in pay will be between those in investment banking advisory and those in retail and commercial banking.

The former could see year-end bonuses drop by 15% to 20% year over year, while the latter may see spikes between 10% to 20%, he said.

“For decades, the masters of the universe were the investment bankers but now they’re the ones getting hit hard,” Johnson said.

New York Post / May 9, 2023